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The overall interventions added to the baseline model are making sense. Based on the lecture on intervention study, I think you should think how these interventions can be incorporated into the model e.g. would you just adjust the related parameter value? or do you need to add some extra compartments? The important note is how to make it as simple as possible and declare some assumptions you need to keep it simple.
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Apart from suicide I think other topics are ok for the infectious disease modelling so I suggest you find some 1-2 relevant modelling papers (try to stick to the simple model in some public health journal, rather than mathematics journals). See if you agree with the model structure, can it be simpler or it should be more complicated…it is up to you to decide. Please discuss this together in the next discussion board as well. You can make comments on your friend’s ideas as well. Good start, well done everyone.
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Although some people might not have direct involvement in COVID-19 pandemic from their job. We are all citizen affected from the pandemic. By complying with the government’s strategies, self-care and care to the family or being considerate with some communications on social media etc…these are all very important contribution to the effective disease controls I think!
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I am glad to see all your comments which clearly showed your self-reflection and intention to improve the listening skill. It is good to recognise that we are all different and nobody is perfect. Missing the details, missing the big picture or missing subtle cues can all happen to us…so be patient when work together!
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Thanks all for sharing your thoughts and some action plans. Taking the balance between caring for yourself and caring for others is what I have been trying to do. I have finished the ‘effective listening’ https://www.linkedin.com/learning/effective-listening/improve-your-listening-skills?u=91782594 which I found enjoyable. It has the components of self-awareness (what type of listener you are) and social skill (how to listen to others). Recommended!
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Some good literatures on this:
Cousien A, Tran VC, Deuffic-Burban S, Jauffret-Roustide M, Dhersin JS, Yazdanpanah Y. Dynamic modelling of hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: a methodological review. J Viral Hepat. 2015 Mar;22(3):213-29. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12337. Epub 2014 Oct 1. PMID: 25270261.
Fraser H, Mukandavire C, Martin NK, Goldberg D, Palmateer N, Munro A, Taylor A, Hickman M, Hutchinson S, Vickerman P. Modelling the impact of a national scale-up of interventions on hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland. Addiction. 2018 Nov;113(11):2118-2131. doi: 10.1111/add.14267. Epub 2018 Jul 10. PMID: 29781207; PMCID: PMC6250951.
Unfortunately I have not got access at the moment. I will try to see if I can later. Or if you can please share and we can discuss this online or onsite.
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The four areas of work you mentioned towards the end are all valid. The next step would be to look for the right structure of the disease progression-transmission (i.e. SIR, SEIR etc). Continue literature review to see what would be the questions suitable for Myanmar setting, how interventions are in place and what may be the issue in the setting. Remember that we should start simple always, thus there would be some assumptions behinds that we keep to make the model simple enough…note those down if you like and we can discuss later.
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ถ้าเราไม่set working directory ก่อนเราต้องบอก path ให้ครบค่ะ ต้องใส่ read.csv(“C:/folder/data.csv”) หรืถ้าset working directory ตามVDO ที่ชี้แจงไว้จะสามารถเรียก command ที่ว่าได้และไม่มี error ค่ะ
setwd(“C:/folder/”)
read.csv(“data.csv”)
อย่าลืมว่าถ้าจะใช้ data ในการคำนวณต่อต้อง assign name ให้ data ด้วยนะคะ เช่น
new.dt <- read.csv("C:/folder/data.csv") หรือ setwd("C:/folder/") new.dt <- read.csv("data.csv") -
Like Wannisa said we always have the problem with health workforce shortage issue. On the other hand, we have much better technology and innovations that I think can release manpower from long hour and boring jobs. I think people need to change their way of working, learn to make good use of technology and keep positive attitudes.
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Thanks Cing for sharing insights from your work in the transformation. It is interesting that people prefer writing down and take longer for digital data entry. I guess it takes time to change and to accept those changes completely. Consistent training will also be important for the staff I am sure.
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Thanks Cing for sharing about yourself. I agree that we have the choice how much we express and interact with others..just do it naturally. Your consideration and good heart will put you to the right action. Forcing yourself too much is tiring and not lasting. For self-regulation, my recommendation is easy. Just realising your current emotion, it is already a good start. This is the buddhism way.
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I know you pretty well after working together for a few years, Jumbo. I know you are kind and patient although you don’t show it clearly but it reflects in your actions and behaviors. Perhaps learn to improve the communication and share some thoughts and feelings with people when appropriate. Respect yourself and much as respect others!
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Ok. it is a good baseline malaria model. Now think about what you want to explore, population movement. How does it change the structure? Let’s just assume a net constant of people coming into the system. If they coming as S alone, what happens? If they come in as S and R (assuming not sick of malaria), what happens? And if they come in as S, I and R (assuming infected but maybe not symptom), what happens? This is a bit like the situation along the Thai-Myanmar border at the moment.
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Hi Ching, Does it run through in R? I think it is not important if the code is not working right now. So for your project, what questions do you want to answer and how do you want to modify this structure? Once we are clear on this we can adjust the structure and we can try to code in R. If it is too complicated at the moment, I think it may be good to just look at female alone. HPV vaccine is prioritised in female.
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First of all, suicide is not infectious disease and so it is not quite the kind of model we use in this course here. The questions proposed would mostly be answered from statistical analysis. The model we learn here is mechanistic, describing the disease progression. Maybe you want to choose an infectious disease?
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So if you are going to put in those controls in the model, how would you do it? My suggestion is to have a term multiply to beta. That term could consist of parameters informing the coverage and efficacy of the intervention. That term is taking the value between 0 and 1, for example we can say
let x be the effective coverage of needle sharing prevention scheme.
Let beta be the transmission rate of Hep C(beta)(1-x) is updated transmission as a result of intervention
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Good choice of structure. Now I think it would depend on the questions you want to focus on. Whether you need to look at various stages of infection (like my published work) or whether it is enough to just have one compartment I. So far you tend to focus on beta. Perhaps you are interested in varying the beta or reducing beta through contact rate changing based on the control measured you mentioned.
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I agree and disagree with this point, just because we calculate p-value based on one data sample so it is just one piece of evidence so when the calculated p-value is very small, it may be true for just this one sample. By saying the p value is less than 0.05 (rather than p value = ???) in a way don’t over emphasis on just one sample’s result in my opinion.
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