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The overall interventions added to the baseline model are making sense. Based on the lecture on intervention study, I think you should think how these interventions can be incorporated into the model e.g. would you just adjust the related parameter value? or do you need to add some extra compartments? The important note is how to make it as simple as possible and declare some assumptions you need to keep it simple.
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Apart from suicide I think other topics are ok for the infectious disease modelling so I suggest you find some 1-2 relevant modelling papers (try to stick to the simple model in some public health journal, rather than mathematics journals). See if you agree with the model structure, can it be simpler or it should be more complicated…it is up to you to decide. Please discuss this together in the next discussion board as well. You can make comments on your friend’s ideas as well. Good start, well done everyone.
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Although some people might not have direct involvement in COVID-19 pandemic from their job. We are all citizen affected from the pandemic. By complying with the government’s strategies, self-care and care to the family or being considerate with some communications on social media etc…these are all very important contribution to the effective disease controls I think!
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I am glad to see all your comments which clearly showed your self-reflection and intention to improve the listening skill. It is good to recognise that we are all different and nobody is perfect. Missing the details, missing the big picture or missing subtle cues can all happen to us…so be patient when work together!
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Thanks all for sharing your thoughts and some action plans. Taking the balance between caring for yourself and caring for others is what I have been trying to do. I have finished the ‘effective listening’ https://www.linkedin.com/learning/effective-listening/improve-your-listening-skills?u=91782594 which I found enjoyable. It has the components of self-awareness (what type of listener you are) and social skill (how to listen to others). Recommended!
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Some good literatures on this:
Cousien A, Tran VC, Deuffic-Burban S, Jauffret-Roustide M, Dhersin JS, Yazdanpanah Y. Dynamic modelling of hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: a methodological review. J Viral Hepat. 2015 Mar;22(3):213-29. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12337. Epub 2014 Oct 1. PMID: 25270261.
Fraser H, Mukandavire C, Martin NK, Goldberg D, Palmateer N, Munro A, Taylor A, Hickman M, Hutchinson S, Vickerman P. Modelling the impact of a national scale-up of interventions on hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in Scotland. Addiction. 2018 Nov;113(11):2118-2131. doi: 10.1111/add.14267. Epub 2018 Jul 10. PMID: 29781207; PMCID: PMC6250951.
Unfortunately I have not got access at the moment. I will try to see if I can later. Or if you can please share and we can discuss this online or onsite.
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This is interesting, Cing although you will need to think further how political instability impact diseases. Is it fewer treatments? Is it fewer vaccines? Is it fewer access to healthcare? Probably all of them. For our short course, I advise you focus on one disease and one or two effects of political instability only.
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Dear Wannisa, HIV could be on a rise if people don’t get appropriate treatment. HIV is infectious and chronic so it is appropriate to use modelling to estimate the impact of high treatment coverage. Think more about the structure of the HIV model and what parameters you need for the model eg incubation, treatment rate and disease progression rates etc.
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Hi Alex, this research question may not be most appropriate for infectious disease modelling. The approach that is commonly used to answer such questions you proposed would be statistical analysis. Although you may be able to derive some NCD questions, the use of transmission dynamics modelling is to capture the impacts on the transmission. For example, vaccination can protect individuals who got vaccinated but can also helped create herd immunity for the population. Please read more of transmission dynamic modelling for infectious diseases and adjust your research topic appropriately.
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Dear Aung, this is an interesting topic for modelling – mosquito population dynamics. I am interested in working on this as we are planning to look at the details of mosquito life cycle and assessment of vector control in the Tak province. The challenge will be how to find some mosquito parameters for the model.
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Thanks Cing for sharing about yourself. I agree that we have the choice how much we express and interact with others..just do it naturally. Your consideration and good heart will put you to the right action. Forcing yourself too much is tiring and not lasting. For self-regulation, my recommendation is easy. Just realising your current emotion, it is already a good start. This is the buddhism way.
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I know you pretty well after working together for a few years, Jumbo. I know you are kind and patient although you don’t show it clearly but it reflects in your actions and behaviors. Perhaps learn to improve the communication and share some thoughts and feelings with people when appropriate. Respect yourself and much as respect others!
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Ok. it is a good baseline malaria model. Now think about what you want to explore, population movement. How does it change the structure? Let’s just assume a net constant of people coming into the system. If they coming as S alone, what happens? If they come in as S and R (assuming not sick of malaria), what happens? And if they come in as S, I and R (assuming infected but maybe not symptom), what happens? This is a bit like the situation along the Thai-Myanmar border at the moment.
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Hi Ching, Does it run through in R? I think it is not important if the code is not working right now. So for your project, what questions do you want to answer and how do you want to modify this structure? Once we are clear on this we can adjust the structure and we can try to code in R. If it is too complicated at the moment, I think it may be good to just look at female alone. HPV vaccine is prioritised in female.
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First of all, suicide is not infectious disease and so it is not quite the kind of model we use in this course here. The questions proposed would mostly be answered from statistical analysis. The model we learn here is mechanistic, describing the disease progression. Maybe you want to choose an infectious disease?
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So if you are going to put in those controls in the model, how would you do it? My suggestion is to have a term multiply to beta. That term could consist of parameters informing the coverage and efficacy of the intervention. That term is taking the value between 0 and 1, for example we can say
let x be the effective coverage of needle sharing prevention scheme.
Let beta be the transmission rate of Hep C(beta)(1-x) is updated transmission as a result of intervention
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Good choice of structure. Now I think it would depend on the questions you want to focus on. Whether you need to look at various stages of infection (like my published work) or whether it is enough to just have one compartment I. So far you tend to focus on beta. Perhaps you are interested in varying the beta or reducing beta through contact rate changing based on the control measured you mentioned.
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