The choice of disease I would like to explore using mathematical modeling is the Monkeypox outbreak in Indonesia, an originally zoonotic infection transmitted from wild animals to humans but now occurring from humans to humans. Mpox has historically been a neglected zoonotic disease which mathematical models to explain its transmission dynamics are limited.
In Indonesia, the first confirmed mpox disease was reported in August 2022, involving a 27-year-old man with prior overseas travel. One year later on October 2023, Indonesia reported the second mpox case and started to massively conduct active case detection. By the end of 2023, the total confirmed cases had reached 72 cases distributed throughout the 6 provinces where 98.6% of cases were concentrated in Java, the most populous island.
Epidemiological investigation revealed an incubation period for mpox ranging from 1 to 21 days, with an average of 7 days. Among 72 cases, only one was female, identified as a spouse of a confirmed male mpox patient. Regarding sexual orientation, the outbreak was reported among 62,5% homosexual individuals, 23% bisexual individuals, and 10% heterosexual individuals. By 2023, mpox became comorbid among 73.6% of HIV patients. Clinical manifestation among all cases exhibited skin lesions and more than half of cases presented 6-25 skin lesions on the face.
Although mpox is considered mild, it is a self-limiting disease whose treatment and prevention control efforts indicate good progress. By the close of 2023, 63 patients had successfully recovered and only one fatality was reported, and the remaining cases were still under isolation. The Indonesia Ministry of Health executed a rapid risk assessment of mpox which the high-risk group targeting HIV patients and homosexual individuals in Jakarta. Following the case resurgence, the government has undergone two doses mpox vaccination with a primary emphasis on men who have sex with men (MSM) and laboratory officers who manage the specimens.
From the rationale above, research questions that may help us to understand the mpox situation using mathematical model are how the mechanism of transmission dynamics in Indonesia and how intervention methods such as two doses of vaccination can help reduce transmission in a high-risk group?
References:
https://infeksiemerging.kemkes.go.id/category/situasi-mpox
Citation:
Peter, O.J., Kumar, S., Kumari, N. et al. Transmission dynamics of Monkeypox virus: a mathematical modelling approach. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 8, 3423–3434 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01313-2
Molla J, Sekkak I, Mundo Ortiz A, Moyles I, Nasri B. Mathematical modeling of mpox: A scoping review. One Health. 2023 Jun;16:100540. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100540. Epub 2023 Apr 17. PMID: 37138928; PMCID: PMC10108573.