– The disease topic: Dengue Fever
– Scope of the research: Country level, Thailand
– Research Question: What are the specific climate factors such as temperature, humidity and rainfall that influence the transmission dynamic of Dengue fever in Thailand.
– Rationale: Per the WHO, Dengue as one of the top ten threats to public health and the disease is associated with significant societal and economic burdens.The Incidence of dengue virus has soared in 2023 to near historically high levels, reported by WHO, more than 5 million cases worldwide and 5,000 deaths from the virus that still lacks an effective treatment or vaccine.
In South and Southeast Asia there is a significant rise in dengue cases, with indications that global warming may contribute to a potential record-breaking number of infections worldwide. In Malaysia, for instance, reported a staggering surge in dengue cases, recording 56,721 cases up to July 20,2023 compared to 23,183 cases during the same period the previous year—an alarming increase of 144.7% while the number of deaths more than doubled compared to 2022, reaching 39. Similarly, Thailand’s Department of Disease Control noted a sharp increase in dengue cases, with 46,855 cases and 41 fatalities registered as of July 19,2023. This marks a significant rise from the 16,542 cases reported throughout the entirety of the previous year, representing the highest rate since 2020. The surge in infections has also been observed in other countries such as Cambodia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
Given the high burden of dengue with the absence of effective vaccine, the primary method to prevent dengue transmission remains vector control. Mathematical models have long been used to describe the dengue transmission and it serves as a guiding tool for decision-making. Investigating the climate factors influencing the dynamic transmission of Dengue fever can contribute to public health authorities’ capacity for implementing intervention measures for disease control.
* References:
– https://healthpolicy-watch.news/dengue-cases-approach-historic-highs-local-transmission-seen-in-europe/
– https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/bengali/dengue-asia-record-infections-08072023151754.ht
*Citations on other previous work that you may use to guide your study (if there are any):
– Aguiar, M., Anam, V., Blyuss, K. B., Estadilla, C. D. S., Guerrero, B. V., Knopoff, D., Kooi, B. W., Srivastav, A. K., Steindorf, V., & Stollenwerk, N. (2022, Mar). Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review. Phys Life Rev, 40, 65-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plrev.2022.02.001
– Chanprasopchai, P., Pongsumpun, P., & Tang, I. M. (2017). Effect of Rainfall for the Dynamical Transmission Model of the Dengue Disease in Thailand. Comput Math Methods Med, 2017, 2541862. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2541862
– Naish, S., Dale, P., Mackenzie, J. S., McBride, J., Mengersen, K., & Tong, S. (2014, 2014/03/26). Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches. BMC Infectious Diseases, 14(1), 167. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-14-167