Choice of Disease and Scope:
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Egypt
Rationale/significance of the research:
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is one of the leading known causes of liver disease in the world. Viral hepatitis has been estimated as the 7th leading cause of mortality globally. About half of this mortality is attributed to hepatitis C virus (HCV), a virus that causes acute hepatitis, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and liver cancer among other disease sequelae.
Egypt has one of the highest prevalence rates of hepatitis C in the world, with 15% of the adult population infected. In 2018, 6% of individuals aged 1–59 years had a positive result on the hepatitis C antibody test, and 4% were found to have an active infection. HCV is one of the significant public health concerns in Egypt that needs more attention and funding from health policymakers. Indeed, Liver disease is the main cause of mortality in Egypt.
Hepatitis C has complex transmission patterns in Egypt and is characterized by unique patterns, including iatrogenic transmission through medical procedures and possible social and cultural factors. Mathematical modeling can help disentangle these complex transmission dynamics and inform targeted interventions.
Egypt faces resource constraints in its healthcare system. Mathematical modeling can assist policymakers in allocating limited resources more effectively by optimizing various intervention strategies.
State the research questions where modeling is likely to help answer:
What are the most effective strategies for reducing the burden of hepatitis C in a high-prevalence region, such as Egypt, and what are the key drivers of hepatitis C transmission and how can we optimize the allocation of healthcare resources in Egypt?
Citations on other previous work that you may use to guide your study (if there are any):
– Current situation of viral hepatitis in Egypt
– Impact of treatment on hepatitis C virus transmission and incidence in Egypt: A case for treatment as prevention
– Estimation of hepatitis C virus infections resulting from vertical transmission in Egypt
– Effect of preventive and curative interventions on hepatitis C virus transmission in Egypt (ANRS 1211): a modelling study
– Estimation of hepatitis C virus infections resulting from vertical transmission in Egypt