Wirichada Pan-ngum

Tuning the model to get the results that make sense is time consuming. Good start anyway!

How would this interrupt the transmission in the modelling? I am not clear here. Although you can perform the cost effectiveness analysis, you need to produce outputs from two comparable scenarios from the modelling. I am not sure how to go about with this stress monitoring system?

I think it is a good question to look at. Comparing the standard vaccination VS Oral rabies vaccination in a target group like stray dogs may be a bit more obvious with the fact that it is much more difficult to vaccinate them.

Although this structure is probably ok for Ebola, the code needed some adjustment. You need to rescale the y-axis to c(0,1) to see what happened. Then you can see the dynamic.

I haven’t done much in Ebola so will need to read the detail about the disease first and would get back. In the mean time, move forward with the final report on this one, how would you like to apply the model to, any intervention?

Kind of make sense, the plot. At least it goes in the right direction but it has little impact here. Often the output of the model we are most interested is incidence (new case per unit of time). It is not obvious in the model, and it is not I. New cases is calculated as force of infection x susceptible. FOI is explained more in my lecture as well.

See my work on COVID-19 modelling…bearable structure, not extremely complicated. https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/10/2/80

Ok! Another COVID-19 example with death compartment added. I think here when you plan to explore the impacts of lockdown, it is fine not to consider E compartment like the previous model because lockdown is applied to all population groups. So lockdown can simply reduce beta then?

Ok, you seem to have a simple COVID-19 model structure there. Next, what are you planning to do with it? Are you planning to add in some interventions? What assumptions have you made when using this simple model? You have mentioned 14 quarantine days, which I think you used it to estimate the rate leaving E to I compartment there, right? Keep going!

I am following you code and have a question on what happened when exposed dogs (E) are vaccinated? Can they return to susceptible? Really?

Great start but TB has a long latent period which I think it is hard to ignore. Also what kind of interventions you are planning to explore. I have previously done some TB work, the simplest model we could have when exploring shorter course treatment. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/authors?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248846

I looked at the reference https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0132037 and pretty sure that they went with SIS model. What is R compartment mean in yours? Please check the structure again. Should it just be uncolonized and colonized?

I am not clear about the model structure. I think it would be nice to draw the compartmental model diagram. I am not sure about the treated individuals as there exists no compartment of treated population. Does the vaccine wane over time?

Those who have tried running their model here using parameters specifically for their disease of interest, please start documenting where these values come from and think more about the assumptions you made when using this simple structure of disease transmission dynamic. Remember, the real world problems are a lot more complex than the maths world!

For those who are not yet to confident to adjust the code, don’t worry just keep thinking and searching for more information on the disease, parameters, relevant questions and issues.

Excellent progress, over expectation on the coding. I will probably need a bit more time to look at the details. Also wondering if most of you sketched the structure diagram before adjusting the R code?

@Weerada, sound like a nice COVID model but choose one between climate factors or mitigation measures I think. Both can be complicated for a short term project here.

Model can be used to test the hypothesis here. So you don’t need the strong evidence before conducting a model and if you already have the strong evidence then may be you would not need a model…data clearly indicates that. Then we can test that hypothesis by showing that the model can fit the observed data that is available. Let’s say if the…[Read more]

I realize it may be a bit difficult to think about the model structure all by yourself. Please look in some literature related to the disease you have chosen and see what sort of model structure they used. Most infectious diseases would have SIRS or SEIRS structure if we know some immunity would be developed after the infection. If not then, SIS…[Read more]

Thanks for many great ideas so far. Well done! Please keep moving on to learn more about modelling and trying to link it back in to your idea of project while studying the materials.