Wirichada Pan-ngum

Those who have tried running their model here using parameters specifically for their disease of interest, please start documenting where these values come from and think more about the assumptions you made when using this simple structure of disease transmission dynamic. Remember, the real world problems are a lot more complex than the maths world!

For those who are not yet to confident to adjust the code, don’t worry just keep thinking and searching for more information on the disease, parameters, relevant questions and issues.

Excellent progress, over expectation on the coding. I will probably need a bit more time to look at the details. Also wondering if most of you sketched the structure diagram before adjusting the R code?

@Weerada, sound like a nice COVID model but choose one between climate factors or mitigation measures I think. Both can be complicated for a short term project here.

Model can be used to test the hypothesis here. So you don’t need the strong evidence before conducting a model and if you already have the strong evidence then may be you would not need a model…data clearly indicates that. Then we can test that hypothesis by showing that the model can fit the observed data that is available. Let’s say if the…[Read more]

I realize it may be a bit difficult to think about the model structure all by yourself. Please look in some literature related to the disease you have chosen and see what sort of model structure they used. Most infectious diseases would have SIRS or SEIRS structure if we know some immunity would be developed after the infection. If not then, SIS…[Read more]

Thanks for many great ideas so far. Well done! Please keep moving on to learn more about modelling and trying to link it back in to your idea of project while studying the materials.

It sounds more like a spatial/statistical modelling to me unless committing suicide is infectious or affecting others who are in close contacts with the person. I suggest reviewing published work on this topic to see if anyone has used mathematical modelling to explore this before and how. Interesting!

Nice framework for start. You can model different level of lockdown and its impacts on health outcomes. There are costs associated with both the interventions and the health outcomes. So we can compare the relative values between UK and Thailand. Think more about data related to this work.

Covid modelling is an interesting one. Think about what you would need to take into account there. All interventions that have been happening is one thing. A lot of literature on this topic, so keep reading and discuss together later.

I have done something similar with DM screening model. May be useful to read and think about the data.

Mahikul W, White LJ, Poovorawan K, et al. A Population Dynamic Model to Assess the Diabetes Screening and Reporting Programs and Project the Burden of Undiagnosed Diabetes in Thailand. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019;16(12):2207. Published…[Read more]

Covid modelling is an interesting one. Think about what you would need to take into account there. All interventions that have been happening is one thing. A lot of literature on this topic, so keep reading and discuss together later.

Cool. We are also working on Rabies problem. Not so much on the oral vaccine but just on the dog population dynamics and the impact of dog sterilization and control of rabies. Looking forward to hearing more on this.

Similarly to the dengue climate model, we need to think in term of the mechanistic of the system. What does the metabolic syndrome do to leptospirosis infection. Do they increase susceptibility to the infection? reduce severity of infection? My previous work on Melioidosis modelling mentioned bits of DM in increasing the severity of infection in…[Read more]

If we believe that climate factors play important role in this we should see if the climate patterns there are really different from other places in Thailand. There are probably many time series (stat models) that try to look at the association between climate factors and mosquito/egg population. In mechanistic model (maths model) we will try to…[Read more]

Great topic. The modelling paper in Plos Computational is a good one to read. I am not sure why it is solely assumed transmission come from patients’ movement, and not hospital staff??

Thank you for the topic. Please study the prevalence of infections among age group? how is it transmitted? How the vaccine work (reduce severity, block transmission,..)? Please look for one or two models published if there are any, what settings were they?

Great gang! Thanks for sharing your opinions here.

Fantastic discussions here. No right or wrong, we are all learning from each other!

Thanks for sharing on digital transformation. The benefit on the future use of this data should be emphasized. The risk of data breach and cybercrime is most challenging in my opinion. You are far more advance than the example of my EMR 🙂