Wirichada Pan-ngum

The fact that you applied and joined this course you have proven to accepting new things. I wish you get the most out of this course.

I challenge you to try sleep as long as you can in a day. It is quite difficult actually, however it has given me a feeling that the world would just keep moving without me so I am allowed to take a rest some days when I am tired.

You will get more experience presenting research from this course so go for it, Karina 🙂

Very brave decision Arwin. Life is full of new things for us to find out. We experience good and bad as we go along. I think it is healthy!

I am glad you are happy with the decision. Work-family are both important so I would go with your choice too. I believe that if you know what you are good at and stay open-minded you will eventually be in the right place.

What a lovely inspiring story you have there. I think you can be a good writer from what I read here. I like to keep some time off to do what I enjoy to get re-charged on my everyday job.

Wonderful story, Fajar! Thank you for sharing. Nothing is as important as your health and only you can take care well of that.

Tuning the model to get the results that make sense is time consuming. Good start anyway!

How would this interrupt the transmission in the modelling? I am not clear here. Although you can perform the cost effectiveness analysis, you need to produce outputs from two comparable scenarios from the modelling. I am not sure how to go about with this stress monitoring system?

I think it is a good question to look at. Comparing the standard vaccination VS Oral rabies vaccination in a target group like stray dogs may be a bit more obvious with the fact that it is much more difficult to vaccinate them.

Although this structure is probably ok for Ebola, the code needed some adjustment. You need to rescale the y-axis to c(0,1) to see what happened. Then you can see the dynamic.

I haven’t done much in Ebola so will need to read the detail about the disease first and would get back. In the mean time, move forward with the final report on this one, how would you like to apply the model to, any intervention?

Kind of make sense, the plot. At least it goes in the right direction but it has little impact here. Often the output of the model we are most interested is incidence (new case per unit of time). It is not obvious in the model, and it is not I. New cases is calculated as force of infection x susceptible. FOI is explained more in my lecture as well.

See my work on COVID-19 modelling…bearable structure, not extremely complicated. https://www.mdpi.com/2079-7737/10/2/80

Ok! Another COVID-19 example with death compartment added. I think here when you plan to explore the impacts of lockdown, it is fine not to consider E compartment like the previous model because lockdown is applied to all population groups. So lockdown can simply reduce beta then?

Ok, you seem to have a simple COVID-19 model structure there. Next, what are you planning to do with it? Are you planning to add in some interventions? What assumptions have you made when using this simple model? You have mentioned 14 quarantine days, which I think you used it to estimate the rate leaving E to I compartment there, right? Keep going!

I am following you code and have a question on what happened when exposed dogs (E) are vaccinated? Can they return to susceptible? Really?

Great start but TB has a long latent period which I think it is hard to ignore. Also what kind of interventions you are planning to explore. I have previously done some TB work, the simplest model we could have when exploring shorter course treatment. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/authors?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0248846

I looked at the reference https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0132037 and pretty sure that they went with SIS model. What is R compartment mean in yours? Please check the structure again. Should it just be uncolonized and colonized?

I am not clear about the model structure. I think it would be nice to draw the compartmental model diagram. I am not sure about the treated individuals as there exists no compartment of treated population. Does the vaccine wane over time?