Wirichada Pan-ngum

Ok. Look forward to reading the full report and will give some detailed feedback. Thanks!

To all. I have read through all your comments and all sounded OK. I would need more time to carefully go through your report and hopefully give useful feedback. I will do that after reading your final report.

Cool. Sounds like you can apply the reduction in transmission directly in the model when using prophylaxis drugs. I will get back after reading your report. Thanks.

Ok, great start. Now HBV main transmission is vertical route. Can you think how this may be added into the model since we want to control it?

Further thinking around this question is how these factors could be incorporated into the model. For example if we focus on internal factors like high contacts or age, it is easily explored in the structure we have.

Arwin, somehow I cannot click reply next to your post. I think you have captured the important elements of HIV there and also aware of what assumptions you made to have a simple version of the model. For the final project, you can spell out the parameter estimates into table with the references.

Karina, it would be good to mention more about the setting. I am not clear if we focus on falciparum here? What do we assume about the immunity among the travelers? I am curious to see the model adjusted to your questions and setting next.

I think gamma is probably the recovery rate (per day) and should actually be 1/duration of infectiousness. OK, it would be nice to now construct and run the model in R.

The structure looks rather complicated because it involved two types of infections. Maybe we can somehow try to simplify the model structure or narrow down the scope of interest.

Hi Hazem, in the next step please think more about the model structure of Measles and adding vaccination into the model as well. For the effect of COVID-19 as you mentioned, I am not sure how well we know about it to tie that up in this modelling. Please read and suggest some more ideas during the course.

The first paper in the list suggested a good model structure for HepB I think. We probably need to take into account the two stages of infection, acute and chronic. The later is more of a problem. HepB vertical transmission (from mother to child) is mentioned a lot in modelling.

Interesting paper. I think it is straightforward modelling if you have data for model fitting. You may try to adjust the model template in this course to this one already and see if it could run.

In the course you will hear about Force of Infection, this dynamic index directly determines the risk of catching infections in an area. You will probably need some measure from the vector side and some background information such as immunity of the travelers from various areas.

Agreed with the structure of the model. More importance is what research questions would be appropriate for modelling?

Interesting one. Little is known still about this infection. I wonder if we can model it like influenza. I read that it could also be difficult to diagnosed and currently it is confirmed after ruling out dengue, chikungunya, zika virus, varicella-zoster virus, and herpes etc. If the objective is to estimate cases and finding risk factors, I think…[Read more]

ก็ได้ค่ะ จริงๆส่วนใหญ่ก็อาจจะทำเช่นนั้น โดยเฉพาะถ้ามีหลักฐานหรือข้อมูล delay treatment มารองรับ ผลกระทบก็คือจะระงับการระบาดได้ยากขึ้นอีกค่ะถ้าเพิ่มตรงนี้เข้าไป

1.มันคือค่า likelihood of observed data given the model แปลไทยประมาณว่าความน่าจะเป็นของจุดข้อมูล จากโมเดลและตัวแปรที่ใช้ ต้องอ้างถึงทั้งสองจุดทั้งข้อมูลและโมเดลค่ะ
2.Maximum a Posteriori or MAP คือ ค่า Maximum Likelihood หรือความน่าจะเป็นสูงสุด ที่ประมาณค่าตัวแปร…[Read more]