Mingkhwan Vithayaveroj

Thank you so much for your advice. I have reviewed the lecture again and get a better understanding. 😀

I do some plot again here >> incidence

I think that I will increase more efficiency variations, maybe it can see more about impact.

What intervention(s) you are considering in your modelling?

– I chose the lockdown intervention. It is the intervention that most governments around the world chose to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and is not difficult to understand for a simple model one.

How it will be added to the model structure?
– by the different beta for the…[Read more]

thank you so much ka ajarn.

yes, I think lockdown can simply reduce beta, but with many assumptions for a simple model.

here I try to plot Infecteds with the different beta, maybe it can explain the concept.

#Infection and death rate of COVID-19 with and without intervention.
#I think I will choose lockdown intervention for this report.

library(deSolve)

SIRD.dyn <- function(t,var,par) {

S <- var[1]
I <- var[2]
R <- var[3]
D <- var[4]

N <- S+I+R+D

beta <- par[1]
gamma <- par[2]
alpha <- par[3]

dS <- -beta*S*I/N
dI <-…[Read more]

Topic:
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdown on nation economy: difference-in-differences method.

Rationale:
In March-April 2020, both UK and Thailand have many similar situations in the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the trend in the proportion of new case infectious/population. They also have nation lockdown but are different in detail. The…[Read more]