1. Disease outbreaks that have been declared as PHEIC by WHO. As of now, seven PHEIC declarations have been made from 2009 to 2023.
Year Disease Duration
2009 H1N1 (Swine flu) June 2009 to Aug 2010
2014 Polio May 2014 to present
2014 Ebola Aug 2014 to March 2016
2016 Zika virus Feb 2016 to Nov 2016
2018 Ebola Jul 2019 – Jun 2020
2020 Covid 19 Jan 2020 – May 2023
2020 Monkey pox Jul 2022 – May 2023
Why do these outbreaks raise such concerns?
2. Why These Outbreaks Raised International Concern
Each PHEI declaration met at least 2 of the following criteria:
(1) Serious impact on public health – There is potentially high mortality and/or morbidity.
(2) Unusual or unexpected – the disease-causing agent is yet unknown or a new (emergent) pathogen
(3) Significant risk for international spread
(4) There is risk for trade or travel restrictions
3. In my opinion, the disease that may potentially lead to PHEIC in the future is – Influenza. Influenza viruses are classified by their H (Hemagglutinin) and N (Neuraminidase) surface proteins, and they mutate unpredictably. There are 18H subtypes (H1-H18) and 11 N subtypes (N1-N11). We cannot estimate which strain (H & N type) will cause outbreak in the coming years and so, no prior vaccine can be given to prevent the infection until it actually happens.